Global macro reports
09 publishedIndependent reviews of the economic, political, geopolitical, technological, and physical forces shaping the global system.
Report archive
28 September-4 October 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 28 September-4 October 2026: The system became more financially restrictive and geopolitically disorderly this week, even as weaker US employment reduced the probability of immediate further Fed tightening.
21-27 September 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 21-27 September 2026: Structurally disorderly, with a small diplomatic stabilisation in US-China relations offset by continued Gulf conflict and sharply higher global financing costs.
14-20 September 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 14-20 September 2026: More disorderly and more expensive to finance. Gulf route security deteriorated further while the Fed and BOJ tightened policy.
7-13 September 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 7-13 September 2026: The system became more fragile this week because the energy-security problem broadened from a single chokepoint into a network problem: Hormuz remains impaired, the Bab el-Mandeb is newly threatened, and Saudi Arabia's principal Hormuz-bypass pipeline was attacked and shut.
31 August-6 September 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 31 August-6 September 2026: More disorderly than last week. The tentative Hormuz improvement reversed into renewed US-Iran military escalation while energy, food and sovereign-financing pressures rose together.
24-30 August 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 24-30 August 2026: Structurally disorderly, with a new divergence between tactical easing in energy markets and persistent underlying pressure from inflation, geopolitical fragmentation and sovereign financing costs.
17-23 August 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 17-23 August 2026: Structurally disorderly and increasingly expensive to finance. Geopolitical supply shocks are now feeding directly into oil, food, inflation expectations and long-duration sovereign yields.
10-16 August 2026
Weekly five-forces review for 10-16 August 2026: Structurally disorderly, but economically more contradictory than a week ago. US inflation and producer-price pressure cooled, reducing near-term Federal Reserve tightening risk, while weaker consumption confirmed softer demand. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated again, Black Sea trade-route attacks intensified, and long-duration US government borrowing costs reached their highest auction levels in roughly a quarter-century.
3-9 August 2026
A weekly five-forces review of geopolitical order, debt, internal cohesion, technology, physical constraints, and the scenarios that connect them.
Method
Each report distinguishes observed developments from interpretation, traces second-order effects, and states what would confirm or contradict the assessment.
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